NASA Regional Applications Center At FIU:

INFORMATION

Hurricane FLORENCE
 ADV  LAT    LON      TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
   1  30.40  -72.40 09/11/15Z   30  1009 TROPICAL DEPRESSION
   2  30.30  -72.60 09/11/18Z   50   998 TROPICAL STORM
   3  30.00  -72.70 09/11/21Z   60   997 TROPICAL STORM
   4  30.20  -72.80 09/12/03Z   60   993 TROPICAL STORM
   5  30.20  -72.80 09/12/09Z   60   993 TROPICAL STORM
   6  30.40  -73.10 09/12/15Z   60   991 TROPICAL STORM
   7  30.80  -73.50 09/12/21Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
   8  31.00  -73.90 09/13/03Z   65   987 HURRICANE-1
   9  30.80  -74.10 09/13/09Z   65   986 HURRICANE-1
  10  30.90  -73.70 09/13/15Z   65   986 HURRICANE-1
  11  30.50  -73.70 09/13/21Z   60   989 TROPICAL STORM
  12  30.20  -73.30 09/14/03Z   60   989 TROPICAL STORM
  13  29.50  -73.50 09/14/09Z   50   993 TROPICAL STORM
  14  29.50  -73.40 09/14/15Z   45   993 TROPICAL STORM
 14A  29.30  -73.10 09/14/18Z   45   995 TROPICAL STORM
  15  29.20  -73.00 09/14/21Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
 15A  29.20  -73.00 09/15/00Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
  16  29.20  -73.00 09/15/03Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
 16A  29.10  -72.50 09/15/06Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
  17  29.00  -72.20 09/15/09Z   40   995 TROPICAL STORM
 17A  29.80  -71.10 09/15/12Z   40   997 TROPICAL STORM
  18  29.80  -70.70 09/15/15Z   40   997 TROPICAL STORM
 18A  30.00  -69.70 09/15/18Z   45   998 TROPICAL STORM
  19  30.20  -69.20 09/15/21Z   45   997 TROPICAL STORM
 19A  30.80  -67.50 09/16/00Z   50   994 TROPICAL STORM
  20  31.40  -66.40 09/16/03Z   65   991 HURRICANE-1
 20A  32.50  -66.00 09/16/06Z   65   988 HURRICANE-1
  21  33.20  -65.20 09/16/09Z   65   992 HURRICANE-1
 21A  34.20  -64.30 09/16/12Z   65   992 HURRICANE-1
  22  34.80  -63.50 09/16/15Z   65   992 HURRICANE-1
  23  37.40  -60.50 09/16/21Z   70   985 HURRICANE-1
  24  38.90  -58.30 09/17/03Z   60   990 TROPICAL STORM
  25  41.30  -56.50 09/17/09Z   55   994 TROPICAL STORM
  26  44.20  -54.20 09/17/15Z   50  1000 TROPICAL STORM
  27  47.20  -52.30 09/17/21Z   50  1000 TROPICAL STORM

WIND is in knots 
PR is pressure in millibars (mb) or hectopascals (hPa)

SUMMARY

... summary not available
********************************************** DETAILS *************************************
238
WTNT35 KNHC 120834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000

...FLORENCE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...MOVING LITTLE...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA... AND ABOUT 500 MILES...800 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD MAKE FLORENCE A HURRICANE.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...30.2 N... 72.8 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT3 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion

407
WTNT45 KNHC 120835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000

THERE WAS AN ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH DIMINISHED THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABATING...
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...ALONG WITH AN EYE-LIKE
WARM SPOT. EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEMS LACKS THE CLASSIC ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BECOME
RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT IS SITUATED OVER 28 DEG C SST. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS LIKELY...IF FLORENCE IS NOT ONE
ALREADY. AIR FORCE RECON IS SCHEDULED FOR 12Z AND THIS WILL GIVE A
BETTER GAUGE OF INTENSITY.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
ESSENTIALLY WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONES TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK FOR A WHILE AND TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
AMPLIFYING 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...CREATING AN
INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR FLORENCE.
THUS...WE EXPECT ERRATIC MOTION...OR A VERY SLIGHT WESTWARD
DISPLACEMENT...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 30.2N 72.8W 60 KTS
12HR VT 12/1800Z 30.3N 73.3W 65 KTS
24HR VT 13/0600Z 30.4N 74.0W 70 KTS
36HR VT 13/1800Z 30.5N 73.5W 70 KTS
48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W 70 KTS

NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available on the WWW. We
are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we provide links to text files for
these products (all track models or GFDL only), and another quickly updated track map from
Hurricane Alley. All guidance here should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the
National Hurricane Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only)
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active storms)
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins).
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory

763
WTNT25 KNHC 120832
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1000
0900Z TUE SEP 12 2000

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.8W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 150SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.8W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.3N 73.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 72.8W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT2 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities

681
WTNT75 KNHC 120836
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

30.4N 74.0W 99 X X X 99 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 5 6
30.5N 73.5W 99 X X X 99 SAVANNAH GA X X 1 6 7
30.5N 73.0W 99 X X X 99 CHARLESTON SC X X 2 7 9
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 2 8 10
MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 1 2 WILMINGTON NC X 1 1 8 10
MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 2 4 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 1 8 10
BERMUDA X X X 6 6 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 6 8
W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 3 4 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2
COCOA BEACH FL X X 2 3 5 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 2 4 6 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH

********************************************** 09-13-2000 **********************************
Hurricane Florence at Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph on
9-13-00 10:27am EST - minimum central pressure 986MB; located about 540
miles West of Bermuda and 320 miles South-Southeast of Cape Hatteras North
Carolina, with little movement expected in the next 24 hours.

********************************************** 09-14-2000 **********************************

264
WTNT35 KNHC 140836
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000

...FLORENCE WEAKENS FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
BERMUDA TODAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 555 MILES...895 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993
MB...29.32 INCHES.

FLORENCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...29.5 N... 73.5 W. MOVEMENT...
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT3 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion

943
WTNT45 KNHC 140837
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FLORENCE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISTORTED. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT
THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO 993 MB AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED AND NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS STILL
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND
CREATE AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN.

SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND GIVEN THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 29.5N 73.5W 50 KTS
12HR VT 14/1800Z 29.4N 73.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 15/0600Z 30.0N 70.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 15/1800Z 31.5N 67.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 16/0600Z 34.0N 65.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 17/0600Z 43.0N 61.0W 60 KTS

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory

925
WTNT25 KNHC 140831
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1000
0900Z THU SEP 14 2000

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 73.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 73.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.4N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 73.5W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 43.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT2 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities

247
WTNT75 KNHC 140837
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

30.0N 70.5W 37 1 X X 38 PORTLAND ME X X X 7 7
31.5N 67.5W 2 21 2 X 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 8 8
34.0N 65.0W X 1 15 3 19 EASTPORT ME X X X 8 8
BERMUDA X 5 13 1 19 ST JOHN NB X X X 7 7
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 1 2 MONCTON NB X X X 6 6
OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3 YARMOUTH NS X X X 9 9
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 4 4 HALIFAX NS X X X 8 8
NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 7 7
MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 7 7 SYDNEY NS X X X 4 4
PROVIDENCE RI X X X 7 7 EDDY POINT NS X X X 6 6
NANTUCKET MA X X X 9 9 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 2 2
HYANNIS MA X X X 9 9 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2
BOSTON MA X X X 7 7 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH

********************************************** 09-15-2000 **********************************
Tropical Storm Florence at Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph on
9-15-00 7:27am EST - minimum central pressure 997MB; located about 410
miles West-Southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the Northeast about 10 mph.

********************************************** 09-16-2000 **********************************
no data available...

********************************************** 09-17-2000 **********************************
673
WTNT35 KNHC 172033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 17 2000

...FLORENCE LOSING ITS IDENTITY AS IS PASSES CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY
AS A DISTINCT LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 38 MPH
...61 KM/HR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...47.2 N... 52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 38 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.

WTNT3 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion

159
WTNT45 KNHC 172030
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000

SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS BEING
ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER CANADA. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 47.2N 52.3W 50 KTS...BECOMING ABSORBED
12HR VT 18/0600Z ...ABSORBED

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory

384
WTNT25 KNHC 172031
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1000
2100Z SUN SEP 17 2000

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 52.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 200SE 200SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.2N 52.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.5N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z ...ABSORBED

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NO STRIKE PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON FLORENCE.

WTNT2 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities

585
WTNT75 KNHC 171443
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN SEP 17 2000

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED SEP 20 2000

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

57.0N 52.4W 19 X X X 19 CAPE RACE NFLD 44 X X X 44
ILE ST PIERRE 2 X X X 2 HIBERNIA OILFLD 16 X X X 16

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN