Tropical Storm Barry formed just west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico on August 2. It 
developed from a storm system that had flooded the Florida Peninsula during prior days. 
Barry was never classified as a tropical depression. It lingered in the Gulf of Mexico 
for three more days, before making landfall near Panama City, Fla., at around midnight 
on Aug. 5. Barry brought several inches of rain to the western Florida Panhandle, but 
caused no major damage or injuries. Tropical Storm Barry reached maximum sustained winds of 
70 mph and a lowest central pressure of 990MB.

********************************************* DETAILS **************************************
08-06-2001
777 
 WTNT33 KNHC 061147
 TCPAT3
 BULLETIN
 TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  17A
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 7 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2001
 
 ...BARRY WEAKENING RAPIDLY...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
  
 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM APALACHICOLA
 TO FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  SMALL CRAFT
 SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
 
 AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED 
 NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE  86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES 
 SOUTH OF SELMA ALABAMA.
  
 BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN 
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER 
 TODAY.
  
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BARRY 
 IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING.
  
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE 
 CENTER...MAINLY IN A FEW SQUALLS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
 IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA 
 PANHANDLE...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY AND 
 TONIGHT.
 
 ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF 
 NORTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND 
 SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
 
 REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...31.6 N... 86.9 W.  MOVEMENT
 TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
  
 FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
 PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
  
 THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
 10 AM CDT.
 
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
WTNT3 Archive

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion 

199 
ABNT20 KNHC 060903
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 6 2001

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BARRY LOCATED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS...HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 
ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

355 
 WTNT43 KNHC 060853
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2001
  
 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT AT 06/0451 FOUND A 700 MB 
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...JUST OFFSHORE. 
 USING THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A 64 KT 
 SURFACE WIND...WHICH WOULD HAVE MADE BARRY A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT 
 LANDFALL. THIS MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL REPORT ON THIS SYSTEM.  
 HOWEVER...BARRY WILL BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM ON ALL OF THE 
 OPERATIONAL ADVISORY PRODUCTS.  SURFACE FRICTION MAY HAVE HELPED TO 
 TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL AS 
 INDICATED BY THE RECENT 50 TO 55 KT WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY EGLIN AFB 
 ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 
 
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08.  BARRY INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED
 TO AROUND 10-11 KT AT LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS EXCELLENT
 CONVERGENCE AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON BARRY SLOWING AND TURNING
 MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.  THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
 BEST PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODEL BY FAR...IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF ALL
 THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE IMMEDIATE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY TURN SHOWN BY
 THE AVN SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
 BETWEEN THE AVN TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THIS TRACK
 IS ALSO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINING MODEL SUITE AND IS CONSISTENT
 WITH THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO STEER BARRY
 MOVE WESTWRAD WITH TIME.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOW FORWARD
 SPEED OF ONLY 3-5 KT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO ARKANSAS AFTER 24
 HOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SERIOUS INLAND 
 FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
 
 BARRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY SPIN DOWN NOW THAT THE 
 CIRCULATION IS WELL INLAND.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED 
 WIND GUSTS TO 60 KT IN SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER BASED 
 ON DOPPLER RADAR INDICATIONS OF MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION IN SOME OF 
 THE CELLS.  FOR THIS REASON...THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST 
 INTENSITY INTENSITY WAS KEPT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR AN 
 INLAND DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY ALSO HELP TO 
 GENERATE MORE DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND BRING SOME OF THE 
 STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL     06/0900Z 31.0N  86.5W    55 KTS
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N  87.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.1N  88.2W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 33.9N  89.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  90.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 35.5N  91.0W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 
NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available 
on the WWW. We are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we 
provide links to text files for these products (all track models or GFDL only), 
and another quickly updated track map from Hurricane Alley. All guidance here 
should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the National Hurricane 
Center and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only) 
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all 
active storms) 
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins). 
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory 

777 
 WTNT23 KNHC 060840
 TCMAT3
 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0301
 0900Z MON AUG 06 2001
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA TO FT.
 WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.  THESE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED
 LATER TODAY.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  86.5W AT 06/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT  8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
 50 KT....... 20NE  45SE  20SW  20NW.
 34 KT....... 40NE 100SE  50SW  35NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N  86.5W AT 06/0900Z
 AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N  86.3W
  
 FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.1N  87.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 40NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 33.1N  88.2W...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
  
 FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.9N  89.4W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N  86.5W
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 34.5N  90.4W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.5N  91.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
 MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  

WTNT2 Archive 

 
Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Probabilities 


877 
 WTNT73 KNHC 060238
 SPFAT3
 TROPICAL STORM BARRY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
 10 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2001
  
 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
 PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
  
 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
 LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.2 WEST
  
 CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
 OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT WED AUG  8 2001
  
 LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
  
 32.2N  87.1W      37  1  X  X 38   BURAS LA           X  2  2  3  7
 33.5N  88.0W      24  1  1  1 27   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  2  2  4  8
 34.0N  89.0W      15  5  2  1 23   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  5  6
 JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  1  1  2   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  4  4
 SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
 CEDAR KEY FL       1  X  1  1  3   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
 ST MARKS FL       14  1  X  1 16   GULF 29N 85W      43  X  X  X 43
 APALACHICOLA FL   48  X  X  X 48   GULF 29N 87W      99  X  X  X 99
 PANAMA CITY FL    99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  X  3  4
 PENSACOLA FL      99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  3  3
 MOBILE AL         14  2  1  1 18   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2
 GULFPORT MS        4  4  2  3 13
  
 COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
 A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM MON
 FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 B FROM  7PM MON TO  7AM TUE
 C FROM  7AM TUE TO  7PM TUE
 D FROM  7PM TUE TO  7PM WED
 E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM WED
 X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
  
 FORECASTER PASCH