NASA Regional Applications Center At FIU:

SUMMARY

Tropical Storm Dean formed in the Caribbean just north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands on Wed., August 22. With 60 mph winds and heavy rains, Dean moved west-northwest
and deluged the Dominican Republic before becoming a tropical wave early Thurs., Aug. 23.
Dean regained tropical storm strength on August 27. It continued moving towards the Northeast
finally becoming and extra-tropical storm on Tuesday, Aug., 28.

Tropical Storm Dean reached Maximum Sustained Winds of 65MPH and a Minimal Central Pressure
of 997MB.

********************************************* DETAILS **************************************
883
WTNT35 KNHC 281436
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE AUG 28 2001

...DEAN WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS OF NEWFOUNDLAND. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GRAND BANKS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES
...325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...44.3 N... 52.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN. ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECASTER STEWART

Official NOAA/NHC Forecast Discussion

844
WTNT45 KNHC 281434
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001

DEAN HAS WEAKEND AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NON-EXISTENT AND MODERATE
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ALSO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF A SATELLITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...T2.5... AND A CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 55 KT...CI3.5...FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/20. DEAN HAS TURNED BACK TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SPLIT AND DROPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS INCREASED TO THE
WEST. THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD ACT TO TURN DEAN BACK
ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND CLOSE TO
THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS.

DEAN IS OVER SUB-20C SST WATER WITH COLDER WATER AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. AS SUCH...RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITH
ONLY SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY OR
MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF GREENLAND AFTER 36 TO 48
HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN. ADDITIONAL AND
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 44.3N 52.2W 50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 29/0000Z 45.6N 48.6W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 29/1200Z 48.2N 44.5W 45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 30/0000Z 51.1N 39.2W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 30/1200Z 54.3N 33.8W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

NOAA ARL Hurricane Prediction track model forecasts are no longer available
on the WWW. We are working to prepare our own graphics. In the meantime, we
provide links to text files for these products (all track models or GFDL only),
and another quickly updated track map from Hurricane Alley. All guidance here
should not be used in lieu of official guidance from the National Hurricane Center
and local emergency management officials.

NOAA GFDL model guidance (text only, track only)
NOAA NHC hurricane model forecast guidance (text only, track/intensity, all active
storms)
Hurricane Alley trackmap for this storm (from NHC bulletins).
WTNT4 Archive
Guidance archive

Official NOAA/NHC (Marine) Advisory

555
WTNT25 KNHC 281435
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0501
1500Z TUE AUG 28 2001

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 52.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM...SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 175SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 52.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 45.6N 48.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 48.2N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 51.1N 39.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 52.2W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 54.3N 33.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN. ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECASTER STEWART

******************************** 08-27-2000 ********************************
431
WTNT35 KNHC 271428
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 27 2001

...DEAN STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES...NO
THREAT TO LAND...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES...980 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY
BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...39.5 N... 59.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

******************************** 08-26-2000 ********************************
no data available for this date...

******************************** 08-25-2000 ********************************
no data available for this date...

******************************** 08-24-2000 ********************************
no data available for this date...

******************************** 08-23-2000 ********************************
833
WTNT35 KNHC 230834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU AUG 23 2001

...DEAN REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INCLUDING ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...
MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK. THIS IS
ALSO ABOUT 295 MILES...475 KM...NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF DEAN WOULD BE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC
MOTION TODAY DUE TO THE CIRCULATION BEING DISORGANIZED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINBANDS TRAILING DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALIZED FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS MAY OCCUR OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

******************************** 08-22-2000 ********************************
811
WTNT35 KNHC 221824
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED AUG 22 2001

...TROPICAL STORM DEAN...FOURTH OF THE SEASON...FORMS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING
ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE
RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM DEAN. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2
NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINBANDS TRAILING DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...19.2 N... 65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN